How Will Recreation on Public Lands Be Different in 2050?
Read the summary here.
and the full report here.
Abstract:
This report provides a look at changes that could come to pass and impact recreation on public lands over the next 30 years. The data were over 700 horizon scan hits from our Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project. Horizon scan hits are a useful early warning system. Horizon scan hits may be directly related to outdoor recreation (e.g., the decline of snow fall) or they may be indirectly related (e.g., the development of lab-grown meat). Because weak signals of change are as important as strong signals, a single scan hit is worthy of consideration, even if it stands alone. These horizon scan hits point to uncertainty and volatility in recreation activities on public lands. Some scan hits point to significant decline in traditional activities, while other scan hits point to increases. New activities are emerging, and there are many crosswinds in domains outside recreation that will impact delivery of recreation on public lands. Climate change is already implicated in recreation changes, from reduced snow fall, to human and animal migration, to reduced biodiversity. Other potential changes on the horizon include changing attitudes toward nature, a growing role for time in forests as a component of healthcare, electrification of many modes of travel, rising potential for augmented reality (AR) in outdoor recreation, the rise in passenger drones changing how people get to recreation sites, the potential for robots to assist with recreation management, and more. Therefore, there are many plausible futures for recreation on public lands. This makes planning more complicated, and the use of additional strategic foresight methods may help decision-makers think about the range of possible futures, and to plan for a preferrable future for outdoor recreation.
Westphal, Lynne M. 2022. The future of recreation on public lands: a horizon scan. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-208. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 106 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-208.
and
this one.
Abstract:
Horizon scanning is a method for detecting and interpreting the implications of emerging issues and other signals of change, both within and outside of an organization or field. Anticipating possible changes that may affect an organization is a first step toward strategic thinking, planning, and actions that can help prepare it for an uncertain future. Developing insight into emerging possible futures—or strategic foresight—can help decisionmakers respond proactively to seize opportunities and mitigate potential threats. Decisionmaking in forestry and other natural resource management fields has underutilized formal horizon scanning.
The USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station's Strategic Foresight Group recently worked with the University of Houston Foresight graduate program to design and implement a formal horizon scanning system for the agency, with the goal of increasing strategic foresight. The nine papers in this report summarize the early phases of this process and lessons learned. Among the topics are the development of a method to identify useful scanning sources pertinent to forest futures, ways to analyze scanning hits, and distinguishing between current and emerging issues for the Forest Service. Also discussed is the range of communication products generated to date by the project. The report contains the complete guide written for those volunteering to do the scanning. This collection will acquaint forest planners, managers, and policymakers with horizon scanning as an integral step in anticipating the consequences of potential change and making better decisions in a rapidly changing environment.
Hines, Andy; Bengston, David N.; Dockry, Michael J., comps. 2019. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-187. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 81 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-P-187
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